2 sources filed · EN 2
Three scenarios: modest (impact like the internet), substantial (bigger than the internet or the railroad), extreme (likely requires recursively self-improving AI adopted quickly).
$34.1T / $36.3T / $44.4TUS GDP in 2030 at 2025 prices in the modest, substantial and extreme scenarios
Modest: AI touches 4% of task instances by 2030; GDP +1.6%, growth 2.4% a year instead of 2%, labor share 60.0% to 59.4%, unemployment 3.9% against a normal 3.8%.
+8.3%GDP above the no-AI path in 2030, substantial scenario; the median US adult's answers imply +8.6%
1 source filed · EN 1
Executive views on AI are lopsided: about 54% expect job displacement, 24% expect job creation, nearly 45% expect higher profit margins and only 12% expect higher wages (Executive Opinion Survey 2024, over 10,000 executives).
54%executives in the Forum's Executive Opinion Survey who expect AI to displace existing jobs