March 2026

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    AI Part 1 lecture slides

    Computing cost fell about seven trillion-fold between 1940 and 2006 (Nordhaus); AI differs from traditional computing by handling tacit knowledge, in Polanyi's sense of "we know more than we can tell".

    0.548 SD to 0.139 SDeducation-based productivity gap without vs with AI access (Cruces et al. 2026, N=1,174)

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    Firm data on AI

    69% of firms use AI on average: US 78%, UK 71%, Germany 65%, Australia 59%.

    69%firms across the US, UK, Germany and Australia that currently use AI

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    Architecting for Agentic AI series

    Bain's AI readiness survey: 80% of generative AI use cases met or exceeded expectations, yet only 23% of companies can tie initiatives to measurable revenue gains or cost reductions.

    80%generative AI use cases that met or exceeded expectations in Bain's AI readiness survey

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    AI meets trade

    Central (medium adoption, expanded capabilities) scenario: AI adds 0.1-0.95 percentage points a year to per capita real income growth across OECD countries over 10 years.

    0.1-0.95 ppAI contribution to annual per capita real income growth across OECD countries over 10 years, central scenario

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    Building pro-worker AI

    Five categories of technological change: labour-augmenting, capital-augmenting, automating, expertise-leveling and new task-creating.

    52%US workers surveyed in 2024 who are worried about how AI will affect their jobs

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    Enterprise AI Playbook

    Sample: 51 cases from 41 organisations in 7 countries and 5 regions, representing over a million employees, studied over 5 months.

    77%hardest challenges that were invisible costs: change management, data quality, process redesign

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    Open models as a new frontier for soft power in the US-China AI competition

    The US "Winning the Race: America's AI Action Plan" (2025) treats open models as having "geostrategic value"; China's "Global AI Governance Action Plan" frames open source as global sharing aimed at the Global South.

    nearly 1,000%growth in DeepSeek model downloads on model-sharing platforms since R1's release in January 2025 (US CAISI)

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    Response to AI Agents RFI

    Five overarching recommendations: scale governance with degrees of autonomy, keep human control and accountability, monitor continuously after deployment, use defense-in-depth and containment, and assess risk at system level rather than model level.

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    Transforming order-to-delivery operations with agentic AI

    Top-performing enterprises process over 90 percent of orders without human intervention; the rest need manual handling for pricing discrepancies, customer-specific terms, incomplete orders, stock allocation, credit risk and compliance.

    over 90 percentshare of orders top-performing enterprises already process without human intervention (per Capgemini)