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Brynjolfsson et al. (ADP payroll): 13% fall in junior employment in high-exposure roles by July 2025; dashboard shows 19% below trend by June 2026, roughly halving with education controls.
19%employment of 22-25-year-olds in high-exposure US roles below trend by June 2026 (Canaries dashboard, descriptive)
1 source filed · EN 1
Simple-task RCTs (writing, coding) show consistent time savings of 20-55%, but some of the speed reflects passive pasting of AI output.
more than 80%AI-using firms reporting no impact on employment or productivity over three years (Yotzov et al. 2026, nearly 6,000 executives)
1 source filed · EN 1
Macro forecasts range from Acemoglu's under 0.66% TFP gain over 10 years to Goldman Sachs' 7% rise in global GDP (about $7 trillion).
15% to more than 50%reductions in task-completion time reported by experiments across writing, support, coding, accounting, law and translation