AI Will Take Its Jobs in the Next Recession
Manufacturing peaked at 17.6 million in March 1998 and had slipped only about 300,000 by mid-2000.
17.3 million to 11.5 millionUS manufacturing employment, 2000 to 2010
Displacement
Week 42 · 12-18 Oct
1 source filed · EN 1
B
Week 19 · 4-10 May
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C Creation, validation, obsolescence: observed evidence of AI-driven labor market displacement, 2020-2025
Posting declines of 14% to 41% for entry- and mid-level software development and content creation in high-income economies (median -23%); the author stresses these are a span across studies, not a pooled estimate.
14-41%range of posting declines for entry- and mid-level software and content roles in high-income economies, 2022-2024 (median -23%, not pooled)
February 2025
1 source filed · EN 1
A Displacement or Complementarity? The Labor Market Impact of Generative AI (HBS Working Paper 25-039)
Top-quartile automation occupations: job postings down 17% per firm per quarter relative to controls after generative AI's introduction.
17%drop in job postings per firm per quarter for top-quartile automation-prone occupations after generative AI