Productivity Annual Report 2026: AI's effect on productivity and employment

English summary

Firm survey + labour/company/expert interviews (Ricoh CHRO, Sompo Japan, Denki Rengo, Seiho Roren); 70%+ of firms have firm-wide AI, mostly 1-3 years; only 45% aim at an AI-premised business model; 90%+ report no headcount effect yet, but over half expect headcount to fall in 5-10 years and AI-using departments expect more cuts than gains. Survey-based estimate: AI labour-productivity effect 1.4% for Japanese workers at end-2025 (vs 1.2% US, Bick et al.). Domain expertise named as the binding constraint. Unions flag AI-divide risk.