---
id: "lib-2026-09-29-workforce-in-motion-skills-and-pathways-to-future"
type: "library"
title: "Workforce in Motion: Skills and Pathways to Future Jobs in the United States"
lang: "EN"
org: "McKinsey Global Institute"
source_type: "Report"
date: "2026-09-29"
week: "2026-W41"
url: "https://nosov.ai/library/lib-2026-09-29-workforce-in-motion-skills-and-pathways-to-future/"
original_url: "https://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/our-research/workforce-in-motion-skills-and-pathways-to-future-jobs-in-the-united-states"
tier: "S"
tier_name: "Shapes the field"
tier_reason: "A McKinsey Global Institute flagship labour-market projection for the United States, the kind of report that sets employer and policy debate, read here through Fortune's detailed coverage."
summary_basis: "abstract"
original_minutes: "60"
tags: ["future of work", "enablement", "occupational mobility", "reskilling"]
---

# Workforce in Motion: Skills and Pathways to Future Jobs in the United States

Tier S (Shapes the field): A McKinsey Global Institute flagship labour-market projection for the United States, the kind of report that sets employer and policy debate, read here through Fortune's detailed coverage.

Summary based on the abstract only.

## In short

"Workforce in Motion" is a McKinsey Global Institute report on how AI and automation will shift US jobs to 2035. This digest is based on Fortune's coverage of 3 October 2026 (by Catherina Gioino), which reports the main figures; the full McKinsey report could not be loaded. MGI estimates that automation cuts demand for about 36 million US jobs by 2035 while growth elsewhere creates about 41 million. Its central claim is that the problem is moving people into the new jobs: "The next decade's challenge is mobility, not scarcity."

## Key numbers

- about 11 million: US workers (roughly 7% of the workforce) who would need to leave their occupations by 2035 in the base case
- about 770,000 a year: workers needing to switch into an entirely different field, roughly 3.6 times the historical average
- 1 in 7: displaced workers with a direct path into a growing job that needs little retraining and pays at least as much
- 7.6 times: how much more likely lower-wage workers are than higher-wage workers to need a new occupation

## What it reports

- About 36 million US jobs see reduced demand by 2035; about 41 million are created elsewhere.
- In the base case about 11 million workers, roughly 7% of the workforce, would need to leave their occupations entirely, with a range of 6 million to 16 million. MGI's 2023 forecast was 12 million switches by 2030.
- About 770,000 people a year would need to switch into an entirely different field, roughly 3.6 times the historical average. About 788,000 a year made similar moves in 2019-2022.
- Shrinking jobs concentrate in office and administrative support, retail and transportation; growth is in healthcare, construction and management.
- Lower-wage workers are 7.6 times as likely as higher-wage workers to need a new occupation.
- Only one in seven displaced workers has a direct path into a growing job; nearly half face an "unpaved" path blocked by skill gaps or credentials.
- About 85% of growing jobs require a credential, and about 76% cannot be done remotely.

## How they got it

Per the coverage, MGI models occupational demand under automation and growth scenarios to 2035, with a base case and a range, and maps transition paths between shrinking and growing occupations by skill overlap and pay. The detailed method, data sources and scenario assumptions were not available in the material read.

## Limits

- This digest relies on press coverage, not the report; method details and caveats are not verified.
- Projections to 2035 depend on adoption assumptions; the 6 to 16 million range shows how wide the uncertainty is.
- US-only; transfer to European labour markets with different credential systems is not addressed.

## Why it matters for companies

The numbers put the pressure on internal mobility and credentials more than on headcount totals. Employers with administrative, retail or logistics workforces face the largest share of roles that need new paths. If only one in seven displaced workers can move directly, reskilling budgets and credential requirements become the main constraint on redeployment. Most growth roles are on-site, so redeployment plans need to account for location as well as skills.

Original: https://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/our-research/workforce-in-motion-skills-and-pathways-to-future-jobs-in-the-united-states