---
id: "lib-2026-01-14-global-risks-report-2026"
type: "library"
title: "Global Risks Report 2026"
lang: "EN"
org: "World Economic Forum"
source_type: "Report"
date: "2026-01-14"
week: "2026-W03"
url: "https://nosov.ai/library/lib-2026-01-14-global-risks-report-2026/"
original_url: "https://www.weforum.org/publications/global-risks-report-2026/"
tier: "A"
tier_name: "Strong evidence"
tier_reason: "The World Economic Forum's 21st annual risk report, built on a documented perception survey of over 1,300 experts plus 11,000 business leaders; strong and well sourced, though it measures perceptions rather than outcomes and AI is one theme of six."
summary_basis: "full-text"
original_minutes: "120"
tags: ["global risks", "geoeconomics", "ai risk"]
---

# Global Risks Report 2026

Tier A (Strong evidence): The World Economic Forum's 21st annual risk report, built on a documented perception survey of over 1,300 experts plus 11,000 business leaders; strong and well sourced, though it measures perceptions rather than outcomes and AI is one theme of six.

Summary based on the full text.

## In short

The WEF Global Risks Report 2026 surveys experts on 33 global risks over 2026, two-year and 10-year horizons. Geoeconomic confrontation tops the short term and economic risks rise fastest. Adverse outcomes of AI rank low now (#30 at two years) but jump to #5 at 10 years, the largest rise of any risk. A chapter, "AI at large", sets out worst cases for labour markets, social cohesion and military use.

## Key numbers

- over 1,300: leaders and experts in the 2025-2026 Global Risks Perception Survey
- #30 to #5: rank of Adverse outcomes of AI technologies, two-year versus 10-year outlook: the largest rise of 33 risks
- 50%: respondents expecting a turbulent or stormy outlook over two years, rising to 57% over 10 years
- 18%: respondents naming geoeconomic confrontation as the risk most likely to trigger a global crisis in 2026
- 27%: AI adoption among North America's working-age population, against 9% in Sub-Saharan Africa

## What it reports

- 50% expect a turbulent or stormy outlook over two years and 57% over 10 years. Only 1% expect calm.
- Geoeconomic confrontation is the top risk for 2026 (18%) and for the two-year horizon. Economic downturn and inflation each rise eight places.
- Misinformation and disinformation is a top short-term concern. Inequality is the most interconnected risk for the second year.
- Adverse outcomes of AI move from #30 (two years) to #5 (10 years). Three countries rank it their top national risk and 20 place it in their top five (Executive Opinion Survey).
- The labour chapter describes "jobless productivity": higher output and higher unemployment at once, a possible "white-collar rust belt" and K-shaped economies, with gains going to high-skill digital workers.
- AI adoption is 27% of the working-age population in North America and 9% in Sub-Saharan Africa (cited).

## How they got it

The Global Risks Perception Survey collected responses from over 1,300 experts in academia, business, government and civil society between 12 August and 22 September 2025, rating severity on a 1-7 scale. It is combined with the Executive Opinion Survey of over 11,000 business leaders in 116 economies and interviews and workshops with 161 experts.

## Limits

- The rankings measure expert perception of severity, not probability or observed harm.
- The AI labour scenarios are explicitly worst cases. Cited estimates range from a net 78 million jobs gained to claims that half of entry-level white-collar jobs could go.
- AI is one of six themes, so the labour analysis is short and relies on secondary sources.

## Why it matters for companies

For risk and HR leaders, the shape of the curve is the message: experts do not see AI as an urgent crisis, but rank it among the gravest risks over a decade. That supports building workforce transition capacity now, while it is cheap, rather than waiting for displacement to show in data. The "jobless productivity" scenario is a useful stress test for any business case that assumes AI savings and stable consumer demand at the same time.

Original: https://www.weforum.org/publications/global-risks-report-2026/